Despite facing coup charges, a political ban, and potential prison time, Brazil’s former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro remains optimistic about his political future. Drawing inspiration from Donald Trump, Bolsonaro believes he can overcome legal challenges and return to power, just as Trump is attempting to do in the U.S.
With the global rise of the far-right, Bolsonaro is lobbying for Trump’s support, pushing for U.S. pressure on Brazilian authorities. However, legal experts and political analysts suggest that his path to a comeback is much steeper than Trump’s.
Bolsonaro’s Legal Troubles: Coup Charges and Political Ban
Bolsonaro, 69, faces serious legal and political obstacles, including:
- Coup Plot Charges – Accused of orchestrating an attempt to overthrow President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after the 2022 elections. If convicted, he could face up to 40 years in prison.
- Political Ban Until 2030 – He is barred from running for office due to his repeated attacks on Brazil’s voting system. Bolsonaro is now lobbying Congress to shorten the ban.
Despite the charges, Bolsonaro remains defiant:
“I am calm… I don’t give a damn about prison,” he told reporters.
Trump’s Influence and Bolsonaro’s U.S. Lobbying Efforts
Bolsonaro sees Trump’s political resurgence as a model for his own return. He is betting on the support of Trump and U.S. conservatives to pressure Brazilian authorities, particularly Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the coup case.
- Trump has praised Bolsonaro as a “great gentleman” and expressed solidarity with him.
- Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, has made several trips to the U.S. to rally Republican support and push for sanctions against Moraes.
- The U.S. House Judiciary Committee recently passed a bill inspired by Moraes’ actions, aimed at blocking foreign officials accused of censorship from entering the U.S.
Why Bolsonaro Sees Trump as His Political Blueprint
- Both claim to be victims of political persecution.
- Both faced legal challenges and bans but refused to step aside.
- Both had supporters storm government buildings after election losses.
- Both push a nationalist, far-right agenda appealing to conservative voters.
“Trump returned to power, rose from the ashes like a Phoenix, so I believe that Bolsonaro, even with all this persecution, will also return to power in 2026,” said Silvia Lucia Soares, a Bolsonaro supporter.
The Role of Judge Alexandre de Moraes and Social Media Crackdowns
A key figure in Bolsonaro’s legal troubles is Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is leading Brazil’s investigations into political disinformation and the coup plot.
Moraes has:
- Suspended social media accounts accused of spreading hate speech on X (formerly Twitter) and Rumble.
- Blocked Rumble in Brazil and previously suspended X for 40 days for failing to comply with court orders.
- Faced backlash from Trump’s allies, including Elon Musk, who opposes censorship policies.
The U.S. State Department criticized Moraes’ actions as “incompatible with democratic values.” In response, Brazil’s government rejected foreign interference, defending the judiciary’s independence.
Can Bolsonaro Really Make a Comeback?
Despite Bolsonaro’s confidence, political experts believe his return is unlikely.
- Political analyst Guilherme Casarões described Bolsonaro’s hopes as far-fetched but acknowledged that a Trump administration could apply pressure on Brazil through sanctions.
- International relations expert Lucas Leite argued that Bolsonaro’s best hope is an amnesty from Congress, which remains highly unlikely.
- Experts predict Bolsonaro could be convicted before the 2026 elections, preventing him from running.
“The only way for him to escape would be through an amnesty via Congress, but I very much doubt that will happen,” said Leite.
While Bolsonaro sees Trump as his political blueprint, his legal challenges and political ban present greater obstacles than those faced by his U.S. counterpart. Although he is lobbying for U.S. pressure, analysts predict that his path to returning to power in 2026 is highly uncertain.
With legal battles intensifying and Brazil’s judiciary standing firm, Bolsonaro’s future depends on whether his supporters in Congress can shorten his political ban—a scenario that remains highly unlikely.
For now, Bolsonaro remains defiant, betting that far-right momentum and Trump’s backing will eventually pave his way back to power.
